Explore the connection between the economic indicators and real-world issues. These lessons typically can be done in one class period.
Current Key Economic Indicatorsas of May 5, 2013
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.2 percent in March after increasing 0.7 percent in February. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in March after rising 0.2 percent in February.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.5 percent. Employment increased in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent...
[Note to teacher:
This lesson uses several charts and tables. You may use these files to create student reproducables or overhead transparencies for use in your classroom.
The consumer price index (CPI) increased by .7 percent (seven-tenths of one percent) during the month of May. The rate of increase in the consumer price index over the past twelve months has been 2.7 percent.
In May, the core consumer price index, which excludes energy and food prices, increased by .1 percent. The core index has increased by 2.2 percent over the last twelve months.
Have your students click on the start button below for an online interactive activity.
[Note to teacher: Annual inflation as measured by the core index was 1.8 in 2004, 2.2 in 2005, and 2.5 percent in 2006.
Goals of Case Study
The goals of the Inflation Case Studies are to provide teachers and students:
- Access to easily understood, timely interpretations of monthly announcements of rate of change in prices in the U.S. economy;
- descriptions of major issues surrounding the data announcements;
- brief analyses of historical perspectives;
- questions and activities to use to reinforce and develop understanding of relevant concepts; and
- a list of publications and resources that may benefit classroom teachers and students interested in exploring inflation.]
Definitions of Inflation
Inflation is a continual increase in the overall level of prices. It is an increase in average prices that lasts at least a few months. The most widely reported measurement of inflation is the consumer price index (CPI). The CPI compares the prices of a set of goods and services relative to the prices of those same goods and services in a previous month or year. Changes in the prices of those goods and services approximate changes in the overall level of prices paid by consumers.
The core consumer price index is the average price of the same set of goods and services, without including food and energy prices, relative to the price of the set without food and energy prices in a previous month or year.
In May, the consumer price index increased at a monthly rate of .7 percent, after increasing by .4 percent in April and by .6 percent in March. Energy prices have been rising significantly over the last three months. In May, energy prices increased once again by 5.4 percent during the month.
The annual rate of change over the last three months was an increase of 7 percent. Over the last twelve months, we experienced an increase of 2.7 percent. The primary cause was the rapid rise in energy prices over the last three months. (Energy prices did fall earlier this year and late last year.) Annual inflation rates from 2003 through 2006 were 2.3, 2.7, 3.4 and 3.2 percent.
The core rate of inflation (a rise of .1 percent in May) represents changes in the consumer price index without the influences of changes in the prices of food and energy, which can fluctuate widely from month to month. The change in the May core index compares to a .2 percent increase in April and .1 percent increase in March.
Extra attention is given by forecasters to the core index as it tends to show more lasting trends in prices. The rates of change in the core index were higher in the early part of this year and that did cause concern about the trend in inflation. The concern was that the increase in energy prices over the last several years may have started to influence rates of increases in all other prices. While that concern still exists, core prices do now seem to be increasing at relatively slow rates.
Figure 1 shows recent inflation data reported for each month. It is obvious that the monthly inflation figures change a great deal from one month to the next. However, it does appear that the monthly increases have been higher over the last two and a half years when compared to the previous three years.
Figure 2 shows the changes in the core index compared to the changes in the overall CPI. Obviously the changes in prices other than energy and food have been significantly smaller than the changes in the overall index. That is due to the much greater volatility in energy and food prices.
Figure 3 shows annual rates of inflation from the 1970s to now. Compared to the rates of inflation in the 1970s and much of the 1980s, the current rate of inflation is low. Few observers would describe the most recent rates as high and they are not when compared to those of the past thirty years.
Figure 4 shows the annual rates of change in the overall CPI and in the core CPI. The trend since 2003 shows a rising overall and core CPI. Still, the increases for both indexes are low on an historical basis.
The chairman of the Federal Reserve and others have stated that the present inflation trends are reassuring but that we should be concerned with the possibility of continued increases in energy and food prices and the possibility of increasing core inflation.
The Consumer Price Index
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index in May was 207.387. The price index was equal to 100 during the period from 1982 to 1984. The appropriate interpretation of the index is that prices in the market basket of goods and services purchased by the typical consumer increased from the 1982-1984 period to May, 2006 by 107.387 percent. A typical consumer good that cost one dollar in 1983 now costs $2.07.
Inflation is announced and reported in newspapers and television news as percentage changes in the CPI on a monthly basis. For example, the core CPI in May increased by .1 percent. The approximate annual rate of increase can be calculated by multiplying the .1 percent by 12 months. Thus the annual rate of core inflation in May was 1.2 percent.
Monthly Inflation Rate
|March||207.387||207.387 - 205.999 = .007 or .7% 205.999|
How the CPI is Calculated
Assume that there are only three goods (instead of goods and services in over 200 categories in the actual calculation) included in the typical consumer's purchases and, in the base or the original year, the goods had prices of $10.00, $20.00, and $30.00. The typical consumer purchased ten of each good.
In the current year, the goods' prices are $11, $24, and $33. Consumers now purchase 12, 8, and 11 of each good.
The CPI for the current year would be the quantities purchased in the market basket in the base year (ten of each good) times their prices in the current year divided by the quantities purchased in the market basket in the base year times their prices in the base year.
Thus [(10 x $11) + (10 x $24) + (10 x $33)] / [( 10 x $10) + (10 x $20) + (10 x $30)] = $680 / $600 = 1.133. That is, prices in the current year are 1.133 times the prices in the original year. Prices have increased on average by 13.3 percent. The quantities are the base year quantities in both the numerator and the denominator.
By convention, the indexes are multiplied by 100 and reported as 113.3 instead of 1.133.
The base year index simply divides the prices in the base year (times the quantities in the base year) by the prices in base year (times the quantities in the base year). The base-year index then is 1.00; or multiplied by 100 equals 100.
How the CPI Data are Collected
The Bureau of Labor Statistics samples the purchases of households representing 87 percent of the population. The consumer price index measures prices of goods and services in a market basket of goods and services that is intended to be representative of a typical consumer's purchases. Forty-one percent of the market basket is made up of goods that consumers purchase. The other fifty-nine percent includes services.
Goods and services sampled include food, clothing, housing, gasoline, other transportation prices, medical, dental, and legal services and hundreds of other retail goods and services. Taxes associated with the purchases are included. Each item is weighted in the average according to its share of the spending of the households included in the sample. Almost 80,000 prices in 87 urban areas across the country are sampled by Bureau of Labor Statistics professionals. Visits and phone calls are made to thousands of households and thousands of retail stores and offices.
CPI Interactive Exercise
Have your students click the start button below for an online assessment activity.
Causes of Inflation
Have your students click on the start button below for an online assessment activity.
Over short periods of time, inflation can be caused by increases in costs or increases in spending. Inflation resulting from an increase in aggregate demand or total spending is called demand-pull inflation . Increases in demand , particularly if production in the economy is near the full-employment level of real GDP, pull up prices. It is not just rising spending. If spending is increasing more rapidly than the capacity to produce, there will be upward pressure on prices.
Inflation can also be caused by increases in costs of major inputs used throughout the economy. This type of inflation is often described as cost-push inflation . Increases in costs push prices up. The most common recent examples are inflationary periods caused largely by increases in the price of oil. Or if employers and employees begin to expect inflation, costs and prices will begin to rise as a result.
Over longer periods of time, that is, over periods of many months or years, inflation is caused by growth in the supply of money that is above and beyond the growth in the demand for money.
Inflation, in the short run and when caused by changes in demand, has an inverse relationship with unemployment. If spending is rising faster than capacity to produce, unemployment is likely to be falling and demand-pull inflation increasing. If spending is rising more slowly than capacity to produce, unemployment will be rising and there will be little demand-pull inflation.
That relationship disappears when inflation is primarily caused by increases in costs. Unemployment and inflation can then rise simultaneously.
Costs of Inflation
Understanding the costs of inflation is not an easy task. There are a variety of myths about inflation. There are debates among economists about some of the more serious problems caused by inflation.
A number of exercises in National Council on Economic Education publications, student workbooks, and textbooks should help students think about the consequences of inflation.
- High rates of inflation mean that people and business have to take steps to protect their financial assets from inflation. The resources and time used to do so could be used to produce goods and services of value. Those goods and services given up are a true cost of inflation.
- High rates of inflation discourage businesses planning and investment as inflation increases the difficulty of forecasting of prices and costs. As prices rise, people need more dollars to carry out their transactions. When more money is demanded, interest rates increase. Higher interest rates can cause investment spending to fall, as the cost of investing increases. The unpredictability associated with fluctuating interest rates makes customers less likely to sign long-term contracts as well.
- The adage “inflation hurts lenders and helps borrowers” only applies if inflation is not expected. For example, interest rates normally increase in response to anticipated inflation. As a result, the lenders receive higher interest payments, part of which is compensation for the decrease in the value of the money lent. Borrowers have to pay higher interest rates and lose any advantage they may have from repaying loans with money that is not worth as much as it was prior to the inflation.
- Inflation does reduce the purchasing power of money.
- Inflation does redistribute income. On average, individuals' incomes do increase as inflation increases. However, some peoples' wages go up faster than inflation. Other wages are slower to adjust. People on fixed incomes such as pensions or whose salaries are slow to adjust are negatively affected by unexpected inflation.
[Note to teachers: This is a good opportunity to ask students to discuss each possible cost of inflation. You might divide the class into five small groups and ask each to select one of the above costs, prepare an example that will illustrate the cost, and then present the examples to the rest of the class.]
Economists define the approximate unemployment rate, at which there are not upward or downward pressures on wages and price, as full employment rate of unemployment. If unemployment falls to level below the full employment rate, there will be upward pressure on wages and prices. If unemployment rises to a very high rate, there will downward pressure on wages and prices or wages and prices will remain steady. In the middle is a level, or more likely a range, where there is not pressure on wages and prices to rise or fall.
Economists do not know for certain what that unemployment rate is, and even if they did, it does change over time. A current consensus estimate is that the full employment rate of unemployment is currently between 4.0 and 4.7 or 4.8 percent of the labor force being unemployed. That is if unemployment were to fall to 4.0 percent of the labor force or below, there will increased upward pressure on wages and that may cause prices to begin to increase. If unemployment were 6.0 percent, workers competing for jobs may cause wages to fall. Costs of producing fall and prices may fall. Or at least not increase as rapidly.
Have your students complete the interactive below.
- What should the Federal Reserve do with its monetary policy given this months and other recent consumer price index announcements? Explain why. [There are a number of possible issues to discuss with this question. One should be cautious about any single month's report of inflation in the overall and in the core indexes. The trend has been one of increasing inflation in the overall index, but steady or falling inflation in the core index. That may indicate that the Federal Reserve should slow the growth of the money supply by raising the target federal funds rate (by selling bonds), the discount rate, or the required reserve ratio.]
A more advanced approach to the question is that monetary policy has a significant lag. Perhaps past policy changes are still working and that nothing should be changed with current policy.
In any case, one should caution students to not place too much emphasis on one month change. The trend and what that trend indicates about the future are what are important in deciding policy.
Your class might be divided into three groups with each taking a possible position – a restrictive policy, no change in policy, and a stimulative policy. The latest Federal Reserve, GDP, and unemployment cases might be considered as part of the evidence to be used.]
Have your students click the start button below for an online assessment activity.