Focus on Economic Data: U.S. Employment and the Unemployment Rate, January 9, 2009
This lesson printed from:
Posted January 21, 2009
Author: Douglas Haskell
Posted: January 21, 2009
This lesson examines the January, 9, 2009, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, announcement of employment data and the unemployment rate for the month of December 2008. This lesson introduces the basic concepts of the BLS employment and unemployment data. The meaning and importance of the data are discussed. Assessment exercises are included for reinforcing knowledge of the concepts.
- Review the most recently reported U.S. employment and unemployment data.
- Determine the changes in U.S. employment and unemployment from the past month and year.
- Determine the factors that have influenced the change in the U.S. unemployment rate.
- Explain the implications of the employment and unemployment data for individuals, population groups, and the U.S. economy.
Current Key Economic Indicatorsas of May 5, 2013
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers decreased 0.2 percent in March after increasing 0.7 percent in February. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in March after rising 0.2 percent in February.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.5 percent. Employment increased in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, retail trade, and health care.
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent...
Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases data from the monthly "Household Survey" conducted by the Bureau of the Census, providing a comprehensive body of information on the employment and unemployment experience of the U.S. population, classified by age, sex, race, and a variety of other characteristics.
The BLS also conducts the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, surveying about 150,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 390,000 individual work sites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls.
The BLS compiles information from these sources and announces the monthly "Employment Situation," reporting the current U.S. employment and unemployment data estimates. The monthly announcement reports employment data from the previous full month.
What Happened to 2.4 million U.S. Jobs?
Newspaper headlines and television news reporters across the country asked this question after the BLS released its December 2008 "Employment Situation" report. That was the total number of jobs that the U.S. economy lost in 2008 as the unemployment rate increased from 4.9 percent in January to 7.2 percent in December. The U.S. has not experienced jobs losses of this magnitude since World War II and many economists see further losses ahead. Over 11 million people were unemployed in December. This Lesson will focus on the employment and unemployment data and what they mean.
The January 9, 2009 BLS "Employment Situation" Announcement:
"Nonfarm payroll employment declined sharply in December, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll employment fell by 524,000 over the month and by 1.9 million over the last 4 months of 2008. In December, job losses were large and widespread across most major industry sectors."
"In December, the number of unemployed persons increased by 632,000 to 11.1 million and the unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has grown by 3.6 million, and the unemployment rate has risen by 2.3 percentage points.
"Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs rose by 315,000 to 6.5 million in December. Over the past 12 months, the size of this group has increased by 2.7 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose to 2.6 million in December and was up by 1.3 million in 2008."
[Note to teachers: Click here for The January 9, 2009, BLS Employment Press Release .]
Key U.S. Economic Indicators, as of January 9, 2009
Inflation: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 1.9 percent in November 2008, before seasonal adjustment. The November level of 212.425 (1982-84=100) was 1.1 percent higher than in November 2007. (December 16, 2008)
Real GDP Growth: Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008. (December 23, 2008)
Federal Reserve Policy: At its December 16, 2008 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent. (December 16, 2008)
Employment and Unemployment: U.S. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 524,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 percent. (January 9, 2009)
[Note to teachers: For the latest updates on U.S. Economic Indicators, go to:
Teacher notes on the employment and unemployment rate lessons:
During the second half of this school year, (January-May), EconEdLink will publish five Focuses on Economic Data on "employment and the unemployment rate." During this time period, the lessons will begin with the 'basics' in January and progressively focus more on complex data, issues and comparisons. All monthly Focuses on Economic Data will include the current data and significant recent changes.
- January: employment and unemployment basics. What is the level of employment? What is the unemployment rate? How are they measured? What do they mean?
February: details and issues about the measurement and meaning of employment and unemployment, adding concepts such as underemployment, full employment, etc.
March: detailed breakdown of the data by region and industry (trends, identifying trends and comparisons of regions and demographic groups
April: the relationships of employment and unemployment data to other economic data, such as GDP, CPI, etc., and the business cycle.
May: school year-end review and analysis.]
Key Economic Indicatorsas of January 9, 2009
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 1.9 percent in November 2008, before seasonal adjustment. The November level of 212.425 (1982-84=100) was 1.1 percent higher than in November 2007.
Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2008.
At its December 16, 2008 meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to establish a target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent.
U.S. Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 524,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate rose from 6.8 to 7.2 percent.
There is little doubt that the recession that began in December 2007 deepened in 2008. Along with the record number of job losses, real gross domestic product has decreased and business failures have increased.
In his "American Recovery and Reinvestment" speech at George Mason University in Virginia, President-elect Barack Obama began with a comment on the historic nature of the current economic crisis. "Throughout America's history, there have been some years that simply rolled into the next without much notice or fanfare. Then there are the years that come along once in a generation - the kind that mark a clean break from a troubled past, and set a new course for our nation. This is one of those years."
The President-elect called for quick action as he takes office January 21, saying, "we need to act boldly and act now to reverse these cycles. That's why we need to put money in the pockets of the American people, create new jobs, and invest in our future. That's why we need to re-start the flow of credit and restore the rules of the road that will ensure a crisis like this never happens again."
President-elect Obama's "economic stimulus" plan calls for a variety of policies, such as:
- The creation of over 3 million new jobs.
- A tax credit for businesses who create new jobs.
- Tax incentives for small business' capital investments.
- Eliminate capital gains tax for small business investors.
- Create a jobs program with public works construction projects.
- Tax cuts and/or a tax rebate program for families
Will a tax rebate, maybe $1,000 per family, work? If this new income is spent on new consumption that creates more production, it has potential. The history of using one-time tax rebates to stimulate spending has not been very successful. Will a one-time rebate change long-term consumer confidence? Is this better than an income tax rate cut that increases people's disposable income over time? What would you like best, a one-time payment or lower taxes for several years?
Will tax breaks for businesses work? If the businesses invest their new spending to create new jobs that create new (increased) income, it may help. The key here is whether or not the new jobs adequately replace the jobs that have been lost. Can we replace manufacturing jobs? Should we? How do we make sure that the incentives create lon-term, meaningful employment for some of the 11 million unemployed?
Will direct job creation through infrastructure spending work? There is no doubt that many of the nation's bridges, roads and schools badly need repair or replacement. Spending money on these projects will create jobs and result in more consumer income as long as the construction projects last. Will that be long enough to multiply into permanent jobs in the broader economy?
The key to all of these possible stimulus strategies is whether or not they will create new jobs that will create new output that will give consumers new income to demand new goods and services, which in turn, will create more new jobs.
A Job Creation Cycle
- New jobs provide new income for consumers.
- Increased income results in more consumer demand (spending).
- More demand (spending) will stimulate business investment.
- More business investment increases the demand for labor.
- Increased demand for labor results in jobs and fewer unemployed.
- The newly employed people have more income to spend.
- Repeat from #1.
To ensure that we make the best policy choices to stimulate the economy and create jobs, we depend on accurate measurements of the health of the economy. Much of that is the job of the BLS.
What is the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
From the BLS website mission statement, "The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics. The BLS is an independent national statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor. The BLS also serves as a statistical resource to the Department of Labor."
"BLS data must satisfy a number of criteria, including relevance to current social and economic issues, timeliness in reflecting today’s rapidly changing economic conditions, accuracy and consistently high statistical quality, and impartiality in both subject matter and presentation." (Source: About BLS )
The BLS collects and reports on a wealth of economics data, primarily related to employment, productivity and prices. For more information on available BLS data, go to these sites:
- Inflation & Prices
- Pay & Benefits
- Spending & Time Use
- Workplace Injuries
- Regional Resources
The Unemployment Rate
The unemployment rate is the percentage of the U.S. labor force that is unemployed. It is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by the sum of the number of people unemployed and the number of people employed. The number of people unemployed and the number of people employed is defined as the number of individuals in the labor force.
An individual is counted as unemployed if the individual is over the age of 16 and is actively looking for a job, but cannot find one. Students, those individuals who choose to not work, and retirees are not in the labor force, and therefore not counted in the unemployment rate.
Unemployment announcements receive headline treatment almost every month. Changes are significant indicators of national economic conditions and have relevance to every local community as unemployment has significant costs to the individuals who are unemployed and to the entire community and the U.S. economy.
Changes in levels of employment are also included in the announcements and often receive less attention. However, the employment data are equally, perhaps even more, important indicators of the direction of the U.S. economy.
How is the unemployment rate determined?
Total civilian population (16 +) 235,035,000 (December 2008)
- Not in Labor force 80,588,000
= Labor force 154,447,000
- Employed 143,338,000
= Unemployed 11,108,000
divided by the labor force 154,447,000
= Unemployment Rate 7.2% (expressed as a percentage)
Figure 1 shows the historical pattern of U.S. unemployment rates. Note that the current rate of 7.2% is approaching the recent high level of 7.8 percent in mid-1992. Some economists predict that the unemployment rate will reach 10% in this business cycle downturn. The last time the unemployment rate reached 10% was in 1982-83.
Distribution of Unemployment
Unemployment varies significantly among groups of individuals and parts of the country. The December 2008 announcement included this breakdown by major demographic groups:
- Total Labor Force 7.2 percent
- Adult Men 7.2 percent
- Adult Women 5.9 percent
- Whites 6.6 percent
- Teenagers 20.8 percent
- Blacks 11.9 percent
- Hispanics 9.2 percent
- Asians 5.1 percent
The BLS report added some comments on significant data on the type of increase and length of unemployment:
"Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs rose by 315,000 to 6.5 million in December. Over the past 12 months, the size of this group has increased by 2.7 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose to 2.6 million in December and was up by 1.3 million in 2008.
Unemployment in Industry Groups
The breakdown of the December 2008 job losses extended to almost all industry groups, as listed below (BLS preliminary estimates). Only education and health, and government gained in the number of industry jobs.
- Non-farm employment (total unemployment) -524,000
- Goods-producing -251,000
- Construction -101,000
- Manufacturing -149,000
- Service-providing -273,000
- Retail trade -67,000
- Professional and business services -113,000
- Education and health services +45,000
- Leisure and hospitality -22,000
- Government +7,000
Types of Unemployment
There are three types of unemployment, each of which describes the particular circumstances of the individual and their employment situation.
- Frictional unemployment is temporary unemployment arising from the normal job search process. Frictional unemployment helps the economy function more efficiently as it simply refers to those people who are seeking better or more convenient jobs and those who are graduating and just entering the job market. Some frictional unemployment will always exist in any economy.
- Structural unemployment is the result of changes in the economy caused by technological progress and shifts in the demand for goods and services. Structural changes eliminate some jobs in certain sectors of the economy and create new jobs in faster growing areas. Persons who are structurally unemployed do not have marketable job skills and may face prolonged periods of unemployment, as they must often be retrained or relocate in order to find employment.
- Cyclical unemployment is unemployment caused by a drop in economic activity. This type of unemployment can hit many different industries and is caused by a general downturn in the business cycle. Lower demand for goods and services reduces the demand for workers. Much of the increase in unemployment in 2008 was cyclical as a result of the economic downturn and recession.
At the levels of unemployment that economists consider to be the lowest possible sustainable levels (discussed below), the only unemployment that exists is due to friction in labor markets and structural changes in the economy.
Economists define the approximate unemployment rate that is 'full employment'. If unemployment falls to a very low rate, there will be upward pressure on prices. If unemployment rises to a very high rate, there will downward pressure on prices or prices will remain steady. In the middle is a level, or more likely a range, where there is not pressure on wages to rise or fall. That is the full employment rate of unemployment.
Economists do not agree or know for certain what that rate is and it does change over time. A consensus estimate is that the full employment rate of unemployment is currently between 4.5 and 5.0 percent of the labor force being unemployed.
Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey Data
Short-run trends in labor force are influenced by seasonal and periodic fluctuations associated with recurring events such as weather, holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. Seasonal adjustment eliminates the influence of these fluctuations and makes it easier for users to observe fundamental changes in the level of the series, particularly changes associated with general economic expansions and contractions.
At the end of each calendar year, BLS updates the seasonal adjustment factors for the labor force data derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS), or household survey. This past year, seasonally adjusted data for January 2008-November 2008 were subject to revision. For example, the unemployment rate in November 2008 was originally reported at 6.7 percent and revised to 6.8 percent by the time of the January 9 announcement.
For a more full explanation of the seasonal adjustment process, see the BLS article "Revision of Seasonally Adjusted Labor Force Series in 2008 ."
What Do the BLS Employment and Unemployment Numbers Mean?
Employment: Each month the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program surveys about 150,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 390,000 individual work sites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls. The BLS publishes a monthly "Current Employment Statistics Highlights ." This report identifies trends in key industry groups.
Unemployment: BLS conducts a monthly household survey, providing comprehensive information on the employment and unemployment of the population classified by age, sex, race, and other characteristics." An online BLS publication outlines, "How the Government Measures Unemployment." http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
In BLS employment and unemployment data, there are basically three categories that all people, age sixteen and over fall into:
- People with jobs are employed.
- People who are jobless, looking for jobs, and available for work are unemployed.
- People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the labor force.
Key BLS Definitions
[Note to teachers: The student version of the lesson asks students to go online to the BLS website "glossary" to learn the definitions of the key BLS "employment report" terms. If they are not able to go online, provide them with the following definitions.]
Labor force: "The labor force includes all persons classified as employed or unemployed in accordance with the definitions contained in this glossary."
Civilian Noninstitutional Population: "Included are persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 States and the District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces."
Employed Persons: "Persons 16 years and over in the civilian non-institutional population who, during the reference week, (a) did any work at all (at least 1 hour) as paid employees; worked in their own business, profession, or on their own farm, or worked 15 hours or more as unpaid workers in an enterprise operated by a member of the family; and (b) all those who were not working but who had jobs or businesses from which they were temporarily absent because of" a variety of reasons."
Unemployed Persons: "Persons aged 16 years and older who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed."
Not in the Labor Force: "Includes persons aged 16 years and older in the civilian non-institutional population who are neither employed nor unemployed in accordance with the definitions contained in this glossary. Information is collected on their desire for and availability for work, job search activity in the prior year, and reasons for not currently searching."
Unemployment Rate: "The unemployment rate represents the number unemployed as a percent of the labor force."
Duration of Unemployment: "The length of time in weeks (through the current reference week) that persons classified as unemployed had been looking for work. For persons on layoff who are counted as unemployed, duration of unemployment represents the number of full weeks they had been on layoff. The data do not represent completed spells of unemployment."
Full-time Workers: "Persons who work 35 hours or more per week."
Hours Worked: "There are two different hours concepts measured in the CPS: usual hours and actual hours at work. Usual hours refer to a person’s normal work schedule versus their actual hours at work during the survey reference week. For example, a person who normally works 40 hours per week, but was off for a 1-day holiday during the reference week, would report his or her usual hours as 40 but actual hours at work for the reference week as 32."
Contingent Workers: "Workers who do not have an implicit or explicit contract for long-term employment. BLS uses three alternative measures of contingent workers that vary in scope."
Marginally Attached Workers: "Persons not in the labor force who want and are available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally attached."
Discouraged Workers: "Persons not in the labor force who want and are available for a job and who have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but who are not currently looking because they believe there are no jobs available or there are none for which they would qualify."
Self-employed Persons: "Those persons who work for profit or fees in their own business, profession, trade, or farm. Only the unincorporated self-employed are included in the self-employed category."
Job Leavers: "Unemployed persons who quit or otherwise terminated their employment voluntarily and immediately began looking for work."
Job Losers: "Unemployed persons who involuntarily lost their last job or who had completed a temporary job. This includes persons who were on temporary layoff expecting to return to work, as well as persons not on temporary layoff. (See Unemployed persons.) Those not on temporary layoff include permanent job losers and persons whose temporary jobs had ended."
Seasonally Adjusted: "Seasonal adjustment removes the effects of events that follow a more or less regular pattern each year. These adjustments make it easier to observe the cyclical and other nonseasonal movements in a data series."
Supply of Workers: Often refers to the labor force. The concept focuses on worker characteristics, especially their education and training, but also characteristics such as experience (often considered to be correlated with age), physical strength (often considered to be inversely correlated with age), ability to work in teams, etc."
Wages and Salaries: "Hourly straight-time wage rate or, for workers not paid on an hourly basis, straight-time earnings divided by the corresponding hours. Straight-time wage and salary rates are total earnings before payroll deductions, excluding premium pay for overtime and for work on weekends and holidays, shift differentials, and non-production bonuses such as lump-sum payments provided in lieu of wage increases."
Weekly Hours: "The expected or actual period of employment for the week, usually expressed in number of hours. Some uses of the term may relate to the outside dimensions of a week (for example, 7 consecutive days)."
The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 7.2 percent after the loss of 524,00 jobs in December 2008. Job losses extended across many industries and reflected a broad downturn in economic activity.
Many economists and government leaders anticipate that unemployment will continue to increase in the coming months, reflecting the true depth of the recession. Pay attention to the employment reports coming out on this schedule:
- February 6, 2009 for the month of January 2009
- March 6, 2009 for the month pf February 2009
- April 3, 2009 for the month of March 2009
- May 8, 2009 for the month of April 2009
All reports are released at 8:30 am.
[Note to teachers: See the BLS Release Calendar .]
SHORT ANSWER ESSAY QUESTION
- How is the unemployment rate determined? [The number of unemployed persons divided by the labor force expressed as a percentage equals the unemployment rate.]
What do you think is the best strategy for Barack Obama's administration to use to stimulate the economy? Why?
Tax cuts or rebates for individuals?
Direct government spending programs?
- Tax incentives for businesses to create jobs?
[Answers will vary. Answers should show the relationship between the (consumer, business or government) spending, increased incomes, consumer spending and increased output.]
The BLS Employment Situation report included comments on "persons not in the labor force" from the Household Survey Data. The BLS statement was:
"About 1.9 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in December, 564,000 more than 12 months earlier. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 642,000 discouraged workers in December, up by 279,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work specifically because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in December had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities."
[Note to teachers: After review of the BLS data, students can question the accuracy of the announced unemployment rate. Ask the following question:]
Discussion Question: Should the marginally attached and discouraged worker be considered as "unemployed"?
[Marginally attached workers are not being fully utilized in the labor force. They are not working or earning income up to their potential. Output is reduced when they are not fully employed. Discouraged workers have "given up" looking for jobs. If they did not look for a job during the time period, they were not "technically" unemployed. If they thought they might find a job, they might look for work.
Some argue that these groups should be included in a "real" unemployment assessment. They, like the unemployed, can contribute to potential output. To not include them under reports the reality of the "employment situation."]