Focus on Economic Data: The Inflation Rate - September 16, 2003
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The seasonally adjusted rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) during the month of August 2003 was 0.3 percent (an increase of four-tenths of one percent). The rate of increase in the consumer price index over the past twelve months was 2.2 percent.
In August, the core consumer price index, which excludes energy and food prices, increased 0.1 percent. Over the last twelve months, the core index increased 1.3 percent.
Definitions of Inflation
Inflation is a sustained increase in the overall level of prices. The most widely reported measurement of inflation is the consumer price index (CPI). The CPI measures the cost of a fixed basket of goods relative to the cost of that same basket of goods in a base (or previous) year. Changes in the price of this basket of goods approximate changes in the overall level of prices paid by consumers.
In August, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3 percent. The CPI increased by 0.2 percent in June and again by the same amount in July. In August, increases in the prices of energy and transportation were largely responsible for the increased rate of inflation. Food prices also increased during the month.
The core rate of inflation (an increase of 0.1 percent in the core CPI in August) represents the consumer price index without the influences of changes in the prices of food and energy, which can fluctuate widely from month to month. The August level compares to a 0.2 percent increase in the core rate of inflation for July and a steady index in June.
Figure 1 below shows recent inflation data reported for each month. Inflation increased in 1999 and 2000 when compared to1998, slowed throughout much of 2001, and then increased slightly in 2002 and 2003. What is really quite obvious from Figure 1 is that the changes in inflation from month to month are much more dramatic from 1999 on, when compared to 1998. The increased volatility is primarily due to fluctuations in the prices of oil and food. The core rate of inflation (excluding food and energy) gives a much better idea of longer-term trends and that is why it is often featured in news reports. See figure 2.
Compared to the rates of inflation in the 1970s and much of the 1980s, the current rate of inflation is quite low. See figure 3 below. Few observers would describe the most recent rates as high and they are not, when compared to those of the past thirty years. Other observers would describe the current experience as no or zero inflation. Inflation is not a current problem or a major concern.
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index in August was 184.5. The price index was equal to 100 during the period from 1982 to 1984. The interpretation is that prices in market basket of goods purchased by the typical consumer increased from the 1982-1984 period to August 2003 by 84.5 percent.
Changes in the CPI are usually reported in newspapers and television news as percentage changes in the CPI on a monthly basis. For example, the CPI in August was 184.5, compared to 183.9 in July. The increase in prices from July to August was (184.5-183.9) / 183.9 = 0.0033 or a monthly inflation rate of .0.33 percent. It is reported to the nearest one-tenth of a percent, in this case, 0.3 percent.
However, inflation rates are normally discussed as annual rates of change in price levels. To convert the monthly change into an annual rate, you could simply multiply the monthly rate by 12. This approximates an annual inflation rate of (0.3)(12) = 3.6 percent. A slightly more accurate measurement of the annual inflation rate is to compound the monthly rate, or raise the monthly rate of increase, plus one, to the 12th power.
The Consumer Price Index
The seasonally adjusted consumer price index in June was 183.6. The price index was equal to 100 during the period from 1982 to 1984. The interpretation is that prices in market basket of goods purchased by the typical consumer increased from the 1982-1984 period to June 2002 by 83.6 percent.
Inflation is usually reported in newspapers and television news as percentage changes in the CPI on a monthly basis. For example, the CPI in June was 183.6, compared to 183.3 in May. The increase in prices from May to June was (183.6-183.3) / 183.3 = 0.0016 or a monthly inflation rate of .0.16 percent. It is reported to the nearest one-tenth of a percent, in this case, 0.2 percent.
To convert this into an annual rate, you could simply multiply by 12. This approximates an annual inflation rate of (0.1)(12) = 2.4 percent. A slightly more accurate measurement of the annual inflation rate is to compound the monthly rate, or raise the monthly rate of increase, plus one, to the 12th power.
|Month||Price Level||Monthly Inflation Rate||Annual Inflation Rate|
|1.003312 = 1.0398
Costs of Inflation
Understanding the costs of inflation is not an easy task. There are a variety of myths about inflation. There are debates among economists about some of the more serious problems caused by inflation.
- High rates of inflation mean that people and business have to take steps to protect their financial assets from inflation. The resources and time used to do so could be used to produce goods and services of value. Those goods and services given up are a true cost of inflation.
- High rates of inflation discourage businesses planning and investment as inflation increases the difficulty of forecasting of prices and costs. As prices rise, people need more dollars to carry out their transactions. When more money is demanded, interest rates increase. Higher interest rates can cause investment spending to fall, as the cost of investing increases. The unpredictability associated with fluctuating interest rates makes customers less likely to sign long-term contracts as well.
- The adage “inflation hurts lenders and helps borrowers” only applies if inflation is not expected. For example, interest rates normally increase in response to anticipated inflation. As a result, the lenders receive higher interest payments, part of which is compensation for the decrease in the value of the money lent. Borrowers have to pay higher interest rates and lose any advantage they may have from repaying loans with money that is not worth as much as it was prior to the inflation.
- Inflation does reduce the purchasing power of money.
- Inflation does redistribute income. On average, individuals' incomes do increase as inflation increases. However, some peoples’ wages go up faster than inflation. Other wages are slower to adjust. People on fixed incomes such as pensions or whose salaries are slow to adjust are negatively affected by unexpected inflation.
A Market Basket of Goods and Services
The Consumer Price Index measures prices of goods and services in a market basket of goods and services that is intended to be representative of a typical consumer's purchases. The percentages that are currently used to describe the categories of goods and services that market basket are as follows.
|Food and beverages||16 %||Recreation||6 %|
|Housing||41 %||Education||3 %|
|Clothing||4 %||Communication||3 %|
|Transportation||17 %||Other goods and services||4 %|
|Medical care||6 %|
There have been many news reports lately about the rising costs of college tuition. In 2000, the average cost of tuition at four-year private colleges was $16,233 compared to $17,123 in 2001. At four-year public institutions, the average tuition increased from $3,487 to $3,754. What was the rate of increase in tuition for public and private colleges? Did the real cost of tuition increase?
Questions for Students
- What is inflation?
- Calculate a consumer price index in 2001 for the following market basket of goods (using 2001 as a base year).
2001 3 boxes of cheerios $4.00 each 2 pounds of bananas $1.00 per pound 2 gallons of milk $3.00 per gallon 2002 4 boxes of cheerios $5.00 each 1 pounds of bananas $2.00 per pound 2 gallons of milk $3.00 per gallon
- Calculate a consumer price index in 2002 (using 2001 as a base year).
- Given this market basket, what is the annual rate of inflation from 2001 to 2002?