Focus on Economic Data: U.S. Employment and the Unemployment Rate, April 1, 2011
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Each month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases data from the monthly "Household Survey" conducted by the Bureau of the Census, providing a comprehensive body of information on the employment and unemployment experience of the U.S. population, classified by age, sex, race, and a variety of other characteristics.
The BLS also conducts the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, surveying about 150,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 390,000 individual work sites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls.
The BLS compiles information from these sources and announces the monthly "Employment Situation," reporting the current U.S. employment and unemployment data estimates. The monthly announcement reports employment data from the previous full month.
This lesson focuses on the April 1, 2011, BLS announcement, "Employment Situation: March, 2011." The lesson will also look at the relationship of employment and unemployment data to other macroeconomic data, such as GDP and CPI, and business cycles.
In this lesson, you will:
- Review the most recently reported U.S. employment and unemployment data.
- Determine the changes in U.S. employment and unemployment from the past month and year.
- Determine the factors that have influenced the change in the U.S. unemployment rate.
- Explain the implications of the employment and unemployment data for individuals, population groups, and the U.S. economy.
The April 1, 2011, "Employment Situation" announcement from the BLS was greeted with bi-partisan enthusiasm and hope that the continued growth of employment is a sure sign of economic recovery. President Obama hailed the report as "good news" for the economy. The New York Times headline referred to the new "resilience" of the economy. But, even with the "good news," the U.S. unemployment rate remained stubbornly high. Take a look at the BLS announcement and decide for yourself - good news or bad?
The Employment Situation – March 2011
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Released April 1, 2011
“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and mining. Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up.”
March 2011 Highlights
- The number of unemployed people in the U.S. decreased by 131,000 to 13.542 million.
- The number of employed persons in the U.S. increased by 291,000.
- The number of people “not in the labor force” decreased by 11,0000.
- The national unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percent to 8.8 percent. Since November 2010, the U.S. unemployment rate has declined by 1.0 percentage point.
- Unemployment rates decreased for adult men (-0.1 percent), adult women (-0.3 percent), whites (-0.1 percent) and Hispanics (-0.3 percent).
- Unemployment rates increased for teenagers (+0.6 percent), blacks (+0.2 percent), and Asians (+0.3 percent).
- The number of long-term unemployed (27 weeks or more) increased by 129,000.
Figure 1, below, is the basic U.S. labor force data for March, 2011. Take a good look at the March data. Do you see any data that impacts you or your family's current life or future?
Figure 2, below, provides unemployment data for the month of March, 2011, including unemployment rates by ethnicity and educational attainment. Do you see any interesting data?
Key U.S. Labor Force Data
|Civilian Non-institutionalized Population||239,000,000||+149,000|
|Civilian Labor Force||153,406,000||+160,000|
|Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate||64.2%||No change|
|Persons Not in Labor Force||85,594,000||-11,000|
|Employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons||8,430,000||+93,000|
|Marginally Attached to the Labor Force||2,434,000||-296,000|
|Note: For complete labor force data, see the BLS report, Tables A-1, A-2, and A-3. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm|
Figure 2: U.S. Unemployment Rates
|Total (16 years and older)||8.8%||-0.1%|
|Adult men (20 years and older)||8.6%||-0.1%|
|Adult women (20 years and older)||7.7%||-0.3%|
|Teenagers (16-19 years)||24.5%||+0.6%|
|Black or African American||15.5%||+0.2%|
|Hispanic or Latino||11.3%||-0.3%|
|Less than a high school diploma*||13.7%||-0.2%|
|High school graduate*||9.5%||0|
|Some college, no diploma*||7.4%||-0.4%|
|*Age 25 and older|
Critics of the BLS labor market data argue that the extent of unemployment is understated in the BLS announcements. To fully understand the current "employment situation," you have to look at the history.
- Many people who were once in the labor force are no longer seeking work. The BLS reported, "In March, the civilian labor force participation rate held at 64.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.5 percent, changed little." Until the end of 2008, the labor force participation rate had consistently been over 66 percent for the previous 20 years. The employment-population ratio had been between 62 and 64 percent since 1993. Why do you think these rates of labor force participation remained low?
- The BLS reported, "The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in March, at 8.4 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job." Many who would like to work full-time are not able to find adequate employment. Does the understate the real rate of unemployment?
- Some people have simply given-up looking for jobs. The BLS reported, "In March, 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, up slightly from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey." If jobs were available, do you think these people would seek them and become counted as in the labor force?
A note about the marginally attached, "Among the marginally attached, there were 921,000 discouraged workers in March, little changed from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities."
Establishment Survey Data – Employment Data
The Establishment Survey measures, among other things, employment trends in various industry groups.
"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March. Job gains occurred in several service-providing industries and in mining, and manufacturing employment continued to trend up. Since a recent low in February 2010, total payroll employment has grown by 1.5 million.
Industry Employment Highlights:
- In March, employment in the service-providing sector continued to expand, led by a gain of 78,000 in professional and business services. Most of the gain occurred in temporary help services (+29,000) and in professional and technical services (+35,000)."
- "Health care employment continued to increase in March (+37,000). Over the last 12 months, health care has added 283,000 jobs, or an average of 24,000 jobs per month."
- "Employment in leisure and hospitality rose by 37,000 over the month, with more than two-thirds of the increase in food services and drinking places (+27,000)."
- "Manufacturing employment continued to trend up in March (+17,000). Job gains were concentrated in two durable goods industries--fabricated metal products (+8,000) and machinery (+5,000). Employment in durable goods manufacturing has risen by 243,000 since its most recent low in December 2009."
- "In March, employment in mining increased by 14,000, with much of the gain occurring in support activities for mining (+9,000)."
- "Employment in local government continued to trend down over the month. Local government has lost 416,000 jobs since an employment peak in September 2008."
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the 2008-2009 recession ended in June, 2009, but significant job growth did not begin until many months later. U.S. non-farm employment has increased by 1,323,000 jobs in the past year (March 2010 to March 2011). Figure 3, below, shows the employment breakdown by industry category in the past year.
Figure 3: Employment by Selected Industry
March 2010 - March 2011
|Total U.S. nonfarm employment||128,584||129,907|
|Total U.S. private employment||105,671||107,360|
|Mining and logging||668||680|
|Motor vehicles and parts||666||698|
|Transportation and warehousing||4,111||4,196|
|Professional and business services||16,343||16,879|
|Educational and health services||19,599||20,019|
|Leisure and hospitality||12,578||12,774|
For details about the March 2011Employment Situation report, go to these sites:
- Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
- Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
- Employment Situation Frequently Asked Questions
- Employment Situation Technical Note
- Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age
- Table A-2. Employment status of the civilian population by race, sex, and age
- Table A-3. Employment status of the Hispanic or Latino population by sex and age
- Table A-4. Employment status of the civilian population 25 years and over by educational attainment
- Table A-5. Employment status of the civilian population 18 years and over by veteran status, period of service, and sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-6. Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-7. Employment status of the civilian population by nativity and sex, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-8. Employed persons by class of worker and part-time status
- Table A-9. Selected employment indicators
- Table A-10. Selected unemployment indicators, seasonally adjusted
- Table A-11. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment
- Table A-12. Unemployed persons by duration of unemployment
- Table A-13. Employed and unemployed persons by occupation, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-14. Unemployed persons by industry and class of worker, not seasonally adjusted
- Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
- Table A-16. Persons not in the labor force and multiple jobholders by sex, not seasonally adjusted
Business Cycles and Unemployment
Figure 4, below, shows the monthly U.S. unemployment rates from 1990 to the present. Note the “up and down” cycles of high and low unemployment over time period. These generally follow the “business cycles.” Periods of very high unemployment are typically correlated with period of slowing or decreasing GDP growth.
Macroeconomic Data - Business Cycles, Employment, GDP and CPI
The economy moves in continuous periods of growth and decline called business cycles. The cycle primarily represents growth and decline of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment, and may also represent other measurements of the general health of the economy. When the economy is in a state of declining GDP and employment it may be in a recession. Let's take a look at how the three macroeconomic measurements in the "Focus on Economic Data" lesson series compare recently and over the last few years. Figure 5, below, illustrates a typical business cycle, from trough to a period of growth, to the peak, to a period of decline, and back to a trough.
Employment and Unemployment (Recap of this Month’s Data)
“Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and mining. Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up”
After losing over 2.2 million jobs in 2008 and almost 4.7 million jobs in 2009, the U.S. economy reversed the trend for few months in early 2010. As previously stated int his lesson, the economy has gained over 1.2 million jobs in the last year. Although the number of U.S. non-farm jobs has been increasing, total non-farm employment is still over seven million jobs below the high leevel of 13,996,000 jobs reported in January, 2008.
Real Gross Domestic Product (Real GDP)
U.S. real gross domestic product increased at an annualized rate of 3.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to the "final" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter of 2010, real GDP increased 2.6 percent. The economy is growing again, although at a rate far below that needed to create millions of new jobs.
The U.S. rate of GDP growth fell-off considerably in 2008, the beginning of the recession. 2008 saw decreases in real GDP in three of four quarters. The losses continued through the second quarter of 2009, when growth began again, at annualized rates of 3.7 percent in Q1, 1.7 percent in Q2 and 2.5 percent growth in Q3. In 2010, real GDP increased at an annual rate (average of the quarterly rates) of 2.9 percent
Figure 6, below, shows the quarterly changes in real GDP growth over the last few years. Note the "cycles" of increased and decreased growth rates. Those periods with lines below the "0" line are quarters of negative growth.
Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the last 12 months, February 2010 to February 2011, the all items price index increased 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Though the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad-based in the last month, the energy index was once again the largest contributor. The gasoline index continued to rise, as it had for much of the last year. The “food at home” index had its largest increase since July 2008.
Although many people fear future inflation as a result of the rising federal debt and continued problems in some financial markets, there has been little evidence of inflationary pressures the current period of time.
Monetary Policy – Federal Funds Rate
Through its last meeting in March, 2011, the Federal Reserve System’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has kept its target for the federal funds rate at 0 - 1/4 percent, the level established in December 16, 2008. The FOMC again stated in March that the rate will be kept low in the near future. The intent of the low interest rate policy is to stimulate the economy by making borrowing - for consumption and investment – cheaper.
Recent Macroeconomic Data
The chart below, Figure 9, compares the primary macroeconomic data, real GDP growth, consumer price index, the unemployment rate, and the federal funds target rate, from 1999 to the present. Are there patterns in their relationships?
Figure 9: Selected Macroeconomic Data
|2009||-2.4||9.8||0.2||0 to .25|
|2010||2.9||9.4||1.6||0 to .25|
Once again, the BLS reported, “Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and mining. Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up.”
The pace of job growth seems to have increased, but it is still well-below a level that will significantly lower the unemployment rate. Many fear that this recovery will be "jobless," meaning that the increased output is from improved capital resources and productivity increases, not more employed workers.
Some people are questioning the traditional concept of the "natural rate of unemployment" and the level considered to be "full employment." Remember, full employment may include those who are frictionally unemployed (changing jobs) and some who are structurally unemployed and the jobs they seek no longer exist where they seek them. The "real" full employment level of unemployment may be those who are cyclically unemployed - not working because of inadequate demand for the products they produce. Estimates of the full employment level of unemployment range from 2 to 7 percent. For the fifteen years prior to the 2008-2009 recession, the U.S. unemployment rate fluctuated between 4 and 6 percent, with one month below 4 percent, the 3.8 percent low level in April, 2000. There are still over 13.5 million unemployed people in the United States.
Is the "real" level of unemployment 8.8 percent? If we subtract, say, 6 percent for the frictionally and some structurally unemployed, is the "real" rate 2.8%. Are these the people we can expect to be reemployed as the economy reaches a peak in the current business cycle?
Next, answer the essay question on the interactive notepad below.
1. How are changes in real GDP and the unemployment rate related?
2. What change in what macroeconomic indicator will convince you that the recession is over? Why?
How do other economic indicators compare to the recent changes in real GDP, unemployment rate, consumer price index, and the federal funds rate target? Take a look at some of the indicators listed below.
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators is published monthly. The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
- Average weekly hours, manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
- Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance
- Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods
- Building permits, new private housing units
- Stock prices, 500 common stocks
- Money supply, M2
- Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
- Index of consumer expectations
Access the Leading Indicators: www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1
- How does the indicator reflect the current economic problems?
- Is the recent history of the indicator similar or related to the GDP, unemployment, or CPI?
- How are people or businesses impacted by the economic data?