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DataLinks
Case Studies
| Key Economic Indicators as of January 4, 2008 |
|
| Inflation | CPI decreased by .67% in December 2007 |
| Unemployment | 5 % in December 2007 |
| Real GDP | .6% annual rate of increase 4th quarter, 2007 |
| Federal Reserve | The Federal Reserve did not change the target federal funds rate of 5.25% |
| (Click on an indicator above to be directed to most recent case study.) | |
| Statistic | Value | Last Updated |
| Real GDP |
11675.7 billion (0.6% annual rate) Quarter 4, 2007 |
01/31/2008 |
| Nominal GDP | 14074.2 billion (3.0% annual rate) Quarter 4, 2007 | 01/31/2008 |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.1% for 3/1/2008 | 02/04/2008 |
| CPI | 0.3% seasonally adjusted for 3/1/2008 (4.00% for 12 months ending Mar, 2008) | 01/23/2008 |
| Federal Budget | 162.81 billion (deficit) for FY 2006 , 311.4 billion for current FY through 3/1/2007 | 04/24/2008 |
| Public Debt | $9,333.2 billion | 04/24/2008 |
| Federal Funds Rate | 2.26% for 04/24/2008 | 02/05/2008 |
| 30 Year Treasury Bond | 4.56% for 04/24/2008 | 02/05/2008 |
| Money Supply (M1) | 0.2% (12 months ending 03/2008) 1372 billion for 3/1/2008 | 02/04/2008 |
| Money Supply (M2) | 7.0% (12 months ending 03/2008) 7661.6 billion for 3/1/2008 | 02/04/2008 |
| Balance of Trade | -62321 Millions of dollars 2/1/2008 | 01/22/2008 |
| Canadian Dollar | $1 US= $1.0163 Canadian | 04/25/2008 |
| Japanese Yen | $1 US = 104.17 Yen | 04/25/2008 |
| Mexican Peso | $1 US = 10.4675 Pesos | 04/25/2008 |
| EU Euro | $1 US = 0.6396 Euros | 04/25/2008 |
Other statistics:
Unemployment, Labor Force Demographics, and Real Wages
Leading Economic Indicators
Money Supply (M1, M2, M3)
Exchange Rate
Data link: http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm
This is the Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Accounts Data; Data from the Latest GDP News Release. Data are in various forms, including changes in levels from previous period, percentage change, levels, etc. Includes breakdown of GDP by expenditure category as well as several other categories. Table 2 provides recent information on real and nominal GDP levels as well as percentage changes.
Charts:
See chart for recent information.(205.232.165.149/usecon.asp#B1)
.
Historical nominal GDP data can be found at the site of the Economic Report
of the President at (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/).
How data are calculated:
www.bea.gov/bea/ARTICLES/NATIONAL/NIPA/Methpap/nipavol.pdf
This is a rather technical discussion of National Income and Product Accounts
methodologies on the BEA's WWW . Be sure to visit http://www.dismal.com/dismal/
This site is just excellent. It has sections on GDP titled: @ a Glance, What
to Look For, Strengths of the Series, Weaknesses of the Series, and a Brief
Description.
Data Link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/output.html
This is the Economic Statistics Briefing Room; Output Link. It provides current quarterly real GDP estimates and charts quarterly real GDP since 1991. To also get information on recent percentage changes (as well as absolute changes) in real GDP, go to the WWW site referred to in the nominal GDP section: (http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm).
Charts:
Other than the real GDP chart from the Economics Statistics Briefing Room, you
can refer to Yardeni's Economics Network chart room that was already mentioned
in the nominal GDP section. This includes plenty of graphs on real GDP over
longer time series. Recall that this is found at (205.232.165.149/usecon.asp#B1)
and uses Adobe Acrobat. Note that the historical series from the Economic Report
of the President WWW site (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/)
are the same as for the nominal GDP section (with the exception that you should
access table B-2 for real GDP).
How data are calculated:
The Dismal Scientist site is the way to go here (http://www.dismal.com/dismal/affiliates/usa_today/gen_definition.asp?r=usa_gdp).
This series really only comes out on an annual frequency
in the Economic Report of the President (EROP). To be sure, real GDP
data come out quarterly and the Census Bureau reports population data each
month, but they do not appear to contemporaneously report the population numbers
on a quarterly basis. Indeed it appears that in the EROP statistical tables,
quarterly population estimates are calculated from monthly calendar year averages.
It is really not too much of a surprise that these data have a lesser frequency
than the other - after all, they do use numbers compiled from two separate
agencies.
Annual per capita real GDP (note that this table does break down recent estimates
into quarterly series): (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/)
Go to Table B-31 of the statistical appendix. These data are available in spreadsheet
form so one may consider making their own graphs.
How data are calculated:
(www.cens
us.gov/population/estimates/nation/intfile1-2.txt). This provides an explanation
of "Population Universe Definitions" that are used in the population calculations.
Unemployment, Labor Force Demographics, and Real Wages
Data Link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/em ployment.html
This is the Economic Statistics Briefing Room; Employment Link. It includes data and graphs for unemployment, unemployment rate, civilian work force, employees on nonfarm payrolls, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, etc.. The following are the primary source links for the series mentioned:
Unemployment, Unemployment Rate, Civilian Labor Force: http://stats.bls.gov/new
s.release/empsit.t01.htm
This is Table A-1 of the recently released employment situation (from the household
survey) and does not contain historical data series. Use seasonally adjusted
data.
Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls: http://stats.bls.gov/new
s.release/empsit.t11.htm
This is Table B-1 of the recently released employment situation (from the establishment
survey) and does not contain historical data series. Use seasonally adjusted
data.
Average Weekly Earnings: ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/new
s.release/realer.txt
This is Table 2 of seasonally adjusted average hourly earnings and average
monthly earnings expressed in current and constant (1982) dollars. Note that
when we refer to real wages, seasonally adjusted average hourly earnings expressed
in constant (1982) dollars is the series to use. This table reports recent
monthly data, it does not contain an historical series.
Average Weekly Hours: http://stats.bls.gov/new
s.release/empsit.t12.htm
This is Table B-2 of the recently released employment situation (from the establishment
survey) and does not contain historical data series. Use seasonally adjusted
data. Recently released data (for the past 12 months) can also be found, along
with graphs, at Economy at a Glance at (http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm).
Historical Data for Various Series: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/
The easiest set of historical data to use is from the Economic Report
of the President. While EROP reports annual data for all series, monthly
data are reported for the most recent years. The following series can
be found in the corresponding tables:
Unemployment - Table B-36 - Civilian Employment and Unemployment by Sex and
Age
Unemployment Rate - Table B-42 - Civillian Unemployment Rate
Civilian Labor Force - Table B-35 - Civiliation Population and Labor Force
Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls - Table B-46 - Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls,
By Major Industry
Average Weekly Hours, Average Hourly Earnings - Table B-47 - Hours and Earnings
in Private Nonagricultural Industries.
Charts:
Unemployment statistics
Graphical Display Link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/em
ployment.html
This is the employment link at the Economic Statistics Briefing Room. All series
have graphical displays over the 1988-1998 time series. Original WWW sources
for the series are as follows:
Civilian Labor Force: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref1
Unemployment: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref2
Unemployment Rate: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref3
Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls:
http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref1
Average Weekly Hours: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref2
Average Hourly Earnings: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref3
Alternatively, we may use "Yardeni's Economics Network" at (205.232.165.149/usecon.asp#B2)
. This WWW site has historical graphs in the labor market series over a different
set of time series.
How data are calculated: Your best bet for understanding how these series of data are calculated is probably, How the Government Measures Unemployment at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm while What Kind of Hours and Earnings Data are Available? can be found at http://www.bls.gov/dolfaq/bls_ques11.htm as well as What is the CES Definition of Employment? at http://www.bls.gov/ces/cescope.htm#3.
Data Link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/prices .html
This site leads you to the primary source site at the BLS (http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
in which in Table A provides seasonally adjusted percentage change data
for the CPI-Urban Consumers series. These data are reported on a month-to-month
as well as a year-over-year basis.
Historical Series: ftp://146.142.4.23/
pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt
This provides all monthly CPI index numbers since 1913. One can turn to the
EROP for historical annual series (and perhaps use the spreadsheet to create
graphs). This can be found in Table B-60 titled CPI for major expenditure classes
at (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/).
Charts: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/prices .html The Economic Statistics Briefing Room graphs the 12-month changes in the CPI and the CPI less food and energy since 1987. Alternatively, "Yardeni's Economics Network" has a CPI series in its online chart room at http://205.232.165.149/usecon.asp#B2. The CPI graphs get downloaded into a file titled cpi_c.pdf. These graphs track the annual percentage change in the CPI and the CPI less food and energy since 1980.
How data are calculated:
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htm
This is the frequently asked questions about the CPI link at the
BLS. It does a sufficient job of addressing how the series is calculated.
Alternatively, refer to the excellent CPI description at "The Dismal Scientist" web
site. This can be found at (http://www.economy.com/dismal/ind_landing.asp).
Data Link: http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/index.html
This is a U.S. Treasury WWW site titled Financial Report to the Citizens. It
includes receipts, spending, and annual budget deficit for FY 1997 as well as
other very useful items. For contemporaneous monthly budget data, try: www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=364&sequence=0&from=7
This is the Monthly Budget Review from the CBO. It provides a number of things
including estimated deficit/surplus for the current month, the actual numbers
for the most recent month, a comparison to the previous fiscal year, and fiscal
year to date budget numbers.
Historical Series:
EROP, Table B-78, Federal Receipts, Outlays, Surplus, or Deficit, and Debt at:
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/
There is a nice link to the office of public debt that keeps a day-to-day record
of the total public debt outstanding. It can be found at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
Charts:
Recall that the EROP data are in spreadsheet format. The OMB has some wonderful
tables and charts at the following site: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy01/pdf/guide.pdf
This is A Citizen's Guide to the Federal Budget - Budget of the U.S. Government
Fiscal Year 2001 - List of Charts and Tables. There are several charts and
tables listed here and they all tell their own story.This is a nice site because
it also helps describe how the data are collected.
How data are calculated:
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy01/guidetoc.html
This is the Table of Contents of A Citizen's Guide to the Federal Budget : Budget
of the U.S. Government Fiscal Year 2001. It has numerous useful links such as
What is the Budget, How Does the Govt. Create a Budget, Deficits and Debt, etc..
Also try: www.treas.gov/opc/opc0037.html
This site is Frequently Asked Questions About the Budget of the U.S. Govt. and
the National Debt. Be sure to visit The Dismal Scientist at: http://www.economy.com/dismal/
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Data Link: http://www.economagic.com/popular.htm
This is the Conference Board's latest release of the
Index of Leading Economic Indicators including recent months and a breakdown
including the contribution of each of the components to the index itself.
Historical Data: http://www.economagic.com/popular.htm
This is the monthly time series of the leading indicators data dating back
to 1959. Use GOM910 series.
Charts:
A downloadable spreadsheet version of the historical data is available at: http://www.tcb-in
dicators.org
Yardeni's
Economics Network has a chart room that looks at U.S. Business Indicators.
The downloadable charts can be displayed on Adobe Acrobat by accessing the lei_c.pdf
file that is saved when you are at the site http://205.232.165.149/usecon.asp#B1.
How data are calculated:
This is a little tricky since the index is a composite of 12 separate series.
Therefore, I would simply suggest that readers refer to the following: http://www.nscb.gov.ph/technotes/lei/lei_tech.asp
which is a simple overview of what the LEI (as well as other series) are. It
is not very comprehensive.
Federal Funds Rate, 30 Year Bond Rate
Data Link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/money.html
This again is the Economic Statistics Briefing Room which links to the primary
sources listed below. The primary source link is: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/Current/ This
site from the Federal Reserve Board provides daily, weekly, and monthly updates
of the FFR and the 30-year bond rate.
Historical Data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm
All historical interest rate data (in series of various frequencies) are available
in a zip file at this URL. We also may take a look at the EROP for annual historical
data (and this may be useful for creating graphics). For this information, see
Table B-73, Bond Yields and Interest Rates at: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/index.html
Charts:
Yardeni's
Economics Network On this main page, go to Slide Shows--Markets--Weekly
Charts--US. Interest Rates and you will download the file shir_c.pdf to be
read by Adobe Acrobat. This gives you the FFR and 30 year T-Bond dating back
to 1983.
How data are calculated:
http://www.publicdebt.trea
s.gov/sec/secfaq.htm : Frequently asked questions about T-bills, notes,
and bonds. The Washington Post has a definition of Treasury Bond at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/glossary/
n_z/us_treasury_bond.htm As well as a link to the term "bond" at the following
URL: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/glossary/a_m/bond.htm
Also, Treasury Financing by Security Try: http://www.publicdebt.tre
as.gov/of/ofpatsec.htm Finally, a glossary of FRB-San Francisco's publication
U.S. Monetary Policy: An Introduction has a definition of the federal funds
rate (along with several other definitions). It can be found at: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/monetary/index.html
Note that the main body of this piece also includes a section titled, What is
the Federal Funds Market? This can be found by linking to: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/monetary/index.html.
Data link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/money.html
This again is the Economic Statistics Briefing Room which links to the primary
sources listed below. The primary source link is: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ which
gives M1, M2, and M3 data in weekly, monthly, and annual frequencies in both
levels and growth rates for the past several months.
Historical data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.txt which
are monthly historical data (in levels) for M1, M2, and M3 since 1959.
Charts:
Yardeni's
Economics Network Go to the main page, find Monetary and Fiscal Policies--Chart
Books. Drag down to Money Supply and download. The file MNYNEW.pdf will read
M1 level (and its components) since 1987, as well as M1, M2, and M3 growth since
1960 on Adobe Acrobat. Also try the EROP by going to Table B-69, Money Stock,
Liquid Assets, and Debt Measures and use the spreadsheet to convert data to
graphical form. M1, M2, and M3 levels and growth rates are found at annual frequency
at this WWW site: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/
How data are calculated:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/about.htm
a brief description of M1, M2, and M3. http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/
: the footnotes tell it all. http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/monetary/glossary.html
the FRB-San Francisco piece has definitions for M1, M2, and M3 in the glossary.
Data Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets and http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/fxc.html
This Bloomberg Website, Key Cross Currency Rates, is a current source of exchange rate data for the dollar versus many international currencies. Historical data: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/ Again, the EROP, Table B-110, Foreign Exchange Rates is a good source of annual historical data.
Charts:
Go to the G7 foreign exchange link at Yardeni's
Economics Network and download the Group of 7 foreign exchange market information
into the file titled fxg7_c.pdf. Adobe Acrobat will read these series that date
back to 1980. The URL for this weekly time series is: http://205.232.165.149/country.asp#Group7.
How data are calculated:
Exchange rates are determined in highly competitive foreign exchange markets;
they depend on the supply of and demand for a currency (relative to others)
and fluctuate constantly.
Balance of Trade, Trade Deficits/Surpluses
Data Link: http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/international.html
The Economic Statistics Briefing Room maintains current
information on the current account balance, the balance on the international
trade of goods and services, as well as other important international
statistics. The primary source for these data is:
For the current account balance: http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/international.html
For the trade deficit: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh1.txt
Monthly levels of imports, exports, and the trade balance for the past two
years.
From the Census Bureau.
Historical Data: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/ EROP Table B-103 U.S. International Transactions has annual historical data
on the balance on current account, on goods and services, imports, exports
etc.
Charts:
For the trade deficit/surplus: http://www.censu
s.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/ustrade.html Census Bureau site that graphically
illustrates each month's trade deficit over a recent time series. Includes current
export and import numbers in the narrative. For a longer graphical time series
go to: http://205.232.165.149/usecon.asp#B3.
This is the U.S. Trade Chart Room, U.S. International Trade, U.S. Merchandise
Trade in Yardeni's
Economics Network. It has a time series of U.S. merchandise trade dating
back to 1987, as well as U.S. trade with other countries over that period.
These graphs are obtained by downloading the file ustr_c.pdf and using the
Adobe Acrobat reader.
How data are calculated:
The dismal scientist gives brief explanations of what is meant by the current
account and the trade balance. In http://www.dismal.com/dismal/affiliates/usa_today/gen_definition.asp?r=usa_trade
they tell a story about business implications and analysis of our growing trade
deficit.
