DataLinks
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Current Key Economic Indicators as of May 14, 2010 |
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| Inflation | On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.1 percent in March after being unchanged in February. The index for all items less food and energy was unchanged in March after rising 0.1 percent in February. (May 14, 2010) |
| Employment and Unemployment | Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 in April, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.9 percent, and the labor force increased sharply. Job gains occurred in manufacturing, professional and business services, health care, and leisure and hospitality. Federal government employment also rose, reflecting continued hiring of temporary workers for Census 2010. (May 7, 2010) |
| Real GDP | U.S. real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2010, (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter). In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 5.6 percent. (April 30, 2010) |
| Federal Reserve | The FOMC will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. (April 28, 2010) |
(Click on an indicator above to be directed to most recent case study)
| Statistic | Value | Last Updated |
| Real GDP |
13248.2 billion (3.0% annual rate) Quarter 1, 2010 |
05/27/2010 |
| Nominal GDP | 14601.4 billion (4.1% annual rate) Quarter 1, 2010 | 05/27/2010 |
| Unemployment Rate | 9.7% for 5/1/2010 | 06/07/2010 |
| CPI | -0.1% seasonally adjusted for 4/1/2010 (2.24% for 12 months ending Apr, 2010) | 05/19/2010 |
| Federal Budget | 1415.72 billion (deficit) for FY 2008 , 935.61 billion for current FY through 5/1/2009 | 06/10/2010 |
| Public Debt | $13,041.4 billion | 06/10/2010 |
| Federal Funds Rate | 0.18% for 06/10/2010 | 06/11/2010 |
| 30 Year Treasury Bond | 4.25% for 06/10/2010 | 06/11/2010 |
| Money Supply (M1) | 7.0% (12 months ending 05/2010) 1705.2 billion for 5/1/2010 | 06/11/2010 |
| Money Supply (M2) | 1.7% (12 months ending 05/2010) 8560.1 billion for 5/1/2010 | 06/11/2010 |
| Balance of Trade | -40285 Millions of dollars 4/1/2010 | 06/11/2010 |
| Canadian Dollar | $1 US= $1.0516 Canadian | 06/11/2010 |
| Japanese Yen | $1 US = 91.83 Yen | 06/11/2010 |
| Mexican Peso | $1 US = 12.8825 Pesos | 06/11/2010 |
| EU Euro | $1 US = 0.8335 Euros | 06/11/2010 |
Other statistics:
Unemployment, Labor Force Demographics, and Real Wages
Leading Economic Indicators
Money Supply (M1, M2, M3)
Exchange Rate
Data link: http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm
This is the Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Accounts Data; Data from the Latest GDP News Release. Data are in various forms, including changes in levels from previous period, percentage change, levels, etc. Includes breakdown of GDP by expenditure category as well as several other categories. Table 2 provides recent information on real and nominal GDP levels as well as percentage changes.
Charts:
Historical nominal GDP data can be found at the site of the
Economic Report of the President at (
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/).
How data are calculated:
www.bea.gov/bea/ARTICLES/NATIONAL/NIPA/Methpap/nipavol.pdf
This is a rather technical
discussion of National Income and Product Accounts methodologies on the BEA's WWW . Be sure
to visit
http://www.dismal.com/dismal/ This site is just excellent. It has sections on GDP titled:
@ a Glance, What to Look For, Strengths of the Series, Weaknesses of the Series, and a Brief
Description.
Data Link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/output.html
This is the Economic Statistics Briefing Room; Output Link. It provides current quarterly real GDP estimates and charts quarterly real GDP since 1991. To also get information on recent percentage changes (as well as absolute changes) in real GDP, go to the WWW site referred to in the nominal GDP section: (http://www.bea.gov/bea/dn1.htm).
Charts:
The real GDP chart can be found at the Economics Statistics Briefing Room
(http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/).
How data are calculated:
The Dismal Scientist site is the way to go here (
http://www.dismal.com/dismal/affiliates/usa_today/gen_definition.asp?r=usa_gdp).
This series really only comes out on an annual frequency in the Economic Report of the President (EROP). To be sure, real GDP data come out quarterly and the Census Bureau reports population data each month, but they do not appear to contemporaneously report the population numbers on a quarterly basis. Indeed it appears that in the EROP statistical tables, quarterly population estimates are calculated from monthly calendar year averages. It is really not too much of a surprise that these data have a lesser frequency than the other - after all, they do use numbers compiled from two separate agencies.
Annual per capita real GDP (note that this table does break down recent estimates into quarterly series): (http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/) Go to Table B-31 of the statistical appendix. These data are available in spreadsheet form so one may consider making their own graphs.
How data are calculated:
(
www.census.gov/population/estimates/nation/intfile1-2.txt). This provides an explanation
of "Population Universe Definitions" that are used in the population calculations.
Unemployment, Labor Force Demographics, and Real Wages
Data Link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/employment.html
This is the Economic Statistics Briefing Room; Employment Link. It includes data and graphs for unemployment, unemployment rate, civilian work force, employees on nonfarm payrolls, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, etc.. The following are the primary source links for the series mentioned:
Unemployment, Unemployment Rate, Civilian Labor Force:
http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
This is Table A-1 of the recently released
employment situation (from the household survey) and does not contain historical data series. Use
seasonally adjusted data.
Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t11.htm
This is Table B-1 of the
recently released employment situation (from the establishment survey) and does not contain
historical data series. Use seasonally adjusted data.
Average Weekly Earnings: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/realer.pdf
The Bureau of Labor Statistics
page shows change in real earnings including the average hourly and weekly earnings in current and
constant (1982) dollars.
Average Weekly Hours: http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
This is Table B-2 of the
recently released employment situation (from the establishment survey) and does not contain historical
data series. Use seasonally adjusted data. Recently released data (for the past 12 months) can also be
found, along with graphs, at Economy at a Glance at (http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.us.htm).
Historical Data for Various Series: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/
The easiest set of historical data to use is from
the Economic Report of the President. While EROP reports annual data for all series, monthly data are
reported for the most recent years. The following series can be found in the corresponding tables:
Unemployment - Table B-36 - Civilian Employment and Unemployment by Sex and Age
Unemployment
Rate - Table B-42 - Civillian Unemployment Rate
Civilian Labor Force - Table B-35 - Civiliation
Population and Labor Force
Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls - Table B-46 - Employees on
Nonagricultural Payrolls, By Major Industry
Average Weekly Hours, Average Hourly Earnings - Table
B-47 - Hours and Earnings in Private Nonagricultural Industries.
Charts:
Unemployment statistics
Graphical Display Link:
www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/employment.html
This is the employment link at the Economic Statistics Briefing Room. All series have graphical displays over the 1988-1998 time series. Original WWW sources for the series are as follows:
Civilian Labor Force: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref1
Unemployment: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref2
Unemployment Rate: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=LN_cpsbref3
Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls:
http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref1
Average Weekly Hours: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref2
Average Hourly Earnings: http://data.bls.gov/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref3
How data are calculated: Your best bet for understanding how these series of data are calculated is probably, How the Government Measures Unemployment at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm while What Kind of Hours and Earnings Data are Available? can be found at http://www.bls.gov/dolfaq/bls_ques11.htm as well as What is the CES Definition of Employment? at http://www.bls.gov/ces/cescope.htm#3.
Data Link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/prices.html
This site leads you to the primary source site at the BLS (http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) in which in Table A provides seasonally adjusted percentage change data for the CPI-Urban Consumers series. These data are reported on a month-to-month as well as a year-over-year basis.
Historical Series: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/Research/data/us/calc/hist1913.cfm
This provides all monthly CPI index numbers since 1913. One can turn to the EROP for historical annual series (and perhaps use the spreadsheet to create graphs). This can be found in Table B-60 titled CPI for major expenditure classes at ( http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/).
Charts: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/prices.html The Economic Statistics Briefing Room graphs the 12-month changes in the CPI and the CPI less food and energy since 1987.
How data are calculated:
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifaq.htmThis is the frequently asked questions about the CPI link at the
BLS. It does a sufficient job of addressing how the series is calculated. Alternatively, refer to the
excellent CPI description at "The Dismal Scientist" website. This can be found at (http://www.economy.com/dismal/ind_landing.asp).
Data Link: http://www.truthandpolitics.org/budget-numbers-intro.php
This site offers detailed numbers of the federal budget and explains what these numbers mean. For contemporaneous monthly budget data, try: www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=364&sequence=0∓from=7
This is the Monthly Budget Review from the CBO. It provides a number of things including estimated deficit/surplus for the current month, the actual numbers for the most recent month, a comparison to the previous fiscal year, and fiscal year to date budget numbers.
Historical Series:
EROP, Table B-78, Federal Receipts, Outlays, Surplus, or Deficit, and Debt
at: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/
There is a nice link to the office of public debt that keeps a day-to-day record of the total public debt outstanding. It can be found at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np
Charts:
Recall that the EROP data are in spreadsheet format. The OMB has some wonderful
tables and charts at the following site: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy01/pdf/guide.pdf
This is A Citizen's Guide to the Federal Budget - Budget of the U.S. Government Fiscal Year 2001 - List of Charts and Tables. There are several charts and tables listed here and they all tell their own story.This is a nice site because it also helps describe how the data are collected.
How data are calculated:
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy01/guidetoc.html
This is the Table of Contents of A Citizen's Guide to the Federal Budget : Budget of the U.S. Government Fiscal Year 2001. It has numerous useful links such as What is the Budget, How Does the Govt. Create a Budget, Deficits and Debt, etc. Also try: www.treas.gov/opc/opc0037.html This site is Frequently Asked Questions About the Budget of the U.S. Govt. and the National Debt. Be sure to visit The Dismal Scientist at: http://www.economy.com/dismal/
Data Link: http://www.economagic.com/popular.htm
This is the Conference Board's latest release of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators including recent months and a breakdown including the contribution of each of the components to the index itself.
Historical Data:
http://www.economagic.com/popular.htm
This is the monthly time series of the leading indicators
data dating back to 1959. Use GOM910 series.
Charts:
A downloadable spreadsheet version of the historical data is available at:
http://www.tcb-indicators.org
How data are calculated:
This is a little tricky since the index is a composite of 12
separate series. Therefore, I would simply suggest that readers refer to the following:
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/technotes/lei/lei_tech.asp which is a simple overview of what the LEI
(as well as other series) are. It is not very comprehensive.
Federal Funds Rate, 30 Year Bond Rate
Data Link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/money.html
This again is the Economic Statistics Briefing Room which links to the primary sources listed below. The primary source link is: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/Current/ This site from the Federal Reserve Board provides daily, weekly, and monthly updates of the FFR and the 30-year bond rate.
Historical Data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm All historical interest rate data (in series of various frequencies) are available in a zip file at this URL. We also may take a look at the EROP for annual historical data (and this may be useful for creating graphics). For this information, see Table B-73, Bond Yields and Interest Rates at: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/index.html
Charts:
Curious Cat
Investing provides a graph which dates back to January 2000, this gives you the FFR and 30 year
T-Bond.
How data are calculated:
http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/sec/secfaq.htm : Frequently asked questions about T-bills, notes, and
bonds. The Washington Post has a definition of Treasury Bond at:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/glossary/n_z/us_treasury_bond.htm As well as
a link to the term "bond" at the following URL:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/glossary/a_m/bond.htm Also, for Treasury
Financing try:
http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/qrc/2004/2004-q3-charts.pdf. Finally,
a glossary of FRB-San Francisco's publication U.S. Monetary Policy: An Introduction has a definition of
the federal funds rate (along with several other definitions). It can be found at:
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/monetary/index.html Note that the main body of this
piece also includes a section titled, What is the Federal Funds Market? This can be found by linking to:
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/monetary/index.html.
Data link: www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/money.html
This again is the Economic Statistics Briefing Room which links to the primary sources listed below. The primary source link is: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/ which gives M1, M2, and M3 data in weekly, monthly, and annual frequencies in both levels and growth rates for the past several months.
Historical data: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/hist/h6hist1.txt which are monthly historical data (in levels) for M1, M2, and M3 since 1959.
Charts:
A money supply chart can be found at
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/11/chart_of_the_we_2.html and shows the growth of M1,
M2 and M3 since 1959. Also try the EROP by going to Table B-69, Money Stock, Liquid Assets, and Debt
Measures and use the spreadsheet to convert data to graphical form. M1, M2, and M3 levels and growth
rates are found at annual frequency at this WWW site: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/
How data are calculated:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/about.htm a brief description of M1, M2, and M3.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/Current/: the footnotes tell it all.
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/federalreserve/monetary/glossary.htmlthe FRB-San Francisco piece
has definitions for M1, M2, and M3 in the glossary.
Data Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets and http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/currencies/fxc.html
This Bloomberg Website, Key Cross Currency Rates, is a current source of exchange rate data for the dollar versus many international currencies. Historical data: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/ Again, the EROP, Table B-110, Foreign Exchange Rates is a good source of annual historical data.
Charts:
The Economist:http://www.economist.com/MARKETS/currency/graphs.cfm provides a "Display
customised graphs of historical exchange rates (back to 1990) for any of 164 currencies". Click
on the graph to modify dates and information.
How data are calculated:
Exchange rates are determined in highly competitive foreign
exchange markets; they depend on the supply of and demand for a currency (relative to others) and
fluctuate constantly.
Balance of Trade, Trade Deficits/Surpluses
Data Link: http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/international.html
The Economic Statistics Briefing Room maintains current information on the current account balance,
the balance on the international trade of goods and services, as well as other important international
statistics. The primary source for these data is:
For the current account balance:
http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr/international.html
For the trade deficit:
http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/current_press_release/exh1.txt
Monthly levels of
imports, exports, and the trade balance for the past two years.
From the Census Bureau.
Historical Data:
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/ EROP Table B-103 U.S. International Transactions has annual historical
data on the balance on current account, on goods and services, imports, exports etc.
Charts:
For the trade deficit/surplus:
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/indicator/www/ustrade.html Census Bureau site that graphically illustrates
each month's trade deficit over a recent time series. Includes current export and import numbers in the
narrative.
How data are calculated:
The dismal scientist gives brief explanations of what is meant by the current
account and the trade balance. In
http://www.dismal.com/dismal/affiliates/usa_today/gen_definition.asp?r=usa_trade they tell a story about
business implications and analysis of our growing trade deficit.
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